I just read this
article from Foxnews and it reminded me of a paper I wrote about two years ago for a class... I forget what I titled it originally; the title I found on it was "China sucks ass"... probably written in a drunken' stuper, but none the less I wrote this thinking there was no way it would happen. I wrote it just so I could get a shorter final for the class. Now I've heard more and more talk about the possibility... below is the paper I turned in.
By the way, this was my first A+ on a college paper...
China: A new stage of Terrorism
Bibliography:
Coil, Jim, Guest Speaker, Lecture 11/17/03.
Friedburg, Aaron, Â11 September and the Future of Sino-American Relations, Survival, Spring 2002.
Hoffman, Bruce, ÂIs Europe Soft on Terrorism, Foreign Policy, Summer 1999.
Levy, Bernard-Henri, ÂWho Killed Daniel Pearl? Grasset, 2003
Marks, Tom, ÂColumbian Army Counter Insurgency, ed. Willoughby, Drug Trafficking.
OÂDonogue, Patrick, ÂTheater Missile Defense in Japan: Implications for the U.S.-China-Japan Strategic Relationship, The Letort Papers, September 2000.
Stevenson, Jonathan, ÂHow Europe and America Defend Themselves, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2003.
Whiting, Allen, ÂChinaÂs Use of Force, 1950-1996, and Taiwan, International Security, Fall 2001.
Telebush
POLI 142M: Regional Security
FA 03
12/01/03
Terrorism has proven to be foe that does not go away easily. Terrorism more often will change shape, size and location rather than just disappearing. Since Al-QaedaÂs removal from Afghanistan it has continued to fight from many locations without a central base of operations. The organization must find a new base to operate from and that home will be in the uncontrolled regions of China. It will be able to remain in China because the nation is preoccupied with vast preexisting and developing problems and international issues.
THE BASIS OF TERRORISM
Terrorism needs several elements to come together in order for it to be operational. Terrorist groups must have money, this allows them to purchase supplies from explosives to food to bribes. Terrorists need recruits. Terrorism is a bloody occupation and recruits are needed to fill the gaps and to reinforce their drive and expand their operations. Terrorists also need land from which to organize and train. The land may come from a state sponsor of terrorism or may be occupies without the state knowing of their intent.
Money comes from many different sources: from donations to earned revenue from selling a product, extortion, or even playing the stock market. Often one may not know that the money they are giving up will wind up in terrorist hands. Recruits for terrorists organizations are most often poor and uneducated. Recruits are often approached with a way to earn money for the family or for a religious righteousness, or a combination of the two. At the same time the terrorists need a place to get organized. These areas need to be free of negative political pressure, be it through the host countries acceptance of the cause or ignorance of the cause entirely.
The Al-Qaeda terrorists were able to find all of these elements in Afghanistan. Money poured in from Middle Eastern countries in donations. Stock markets of the world were played;
It consist of selling a stock that you donÂt have but that a bank will lend you for a commission, and that you buy back later at the market price when the time comes to return it to the bank. Suppose itÂs worth 100, but you have reason to suspect it will go down to 50. Suppose you know that an attack on the World Trade Center is going to happen, which will drive the market down. So you rent the stock an immediately sell it at the market price, which it still 100. When the attack comes and the stock takes a dive as expected, you buy back at 50 what you sold for 100 and pocket the difference.
Recruits came from around the world as they looked for Muslims that were lonely in host countries or were lured by religious ideology. Finally, Al-Qaeda was able to use Afghanistan as a host since their religious views were similar to those of the Taliban; the Taliban were sympathetic to the Al-Qaeda cause.
Terrorists are able to put these elements together in Columbia and created Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Columbia (FARC). Money once came from the Soviet Union in their fight for communism but once those funds stopped coming in a lucrative market was found in the drug trade. FARC was quick to tax much of the drug trade and use the profits to fund its cause. ÂDirect involvement in it [drug trade] provided a resource windfall which made previously marginal political actors into central figures. It is clear that the lucrative endeavors of the drug trade were a significant foundation upon which to build the organization as a whole. The recruits, a resource secondary only to money, that the FARC seek out are not much different than those in the Middle East. Many locals often feel alienated and are dissatisfied with the governmentÂs ability to take care of the people. They turn to the terror organization as a means of money to take care of their family since they have little or no education from which to build a career. Finally, FARC is able to control land in a country such as Columbia because of its vast forest covering many mountains and difficult terrain; no army could fully eradicate the crops of the drug trade or the people of FARC from the region.
WHY ARE TERRORISTS RUNNING?
Terrorists are increasingly having to find new locations from which to base their organization and new areas to train in. The primary reason for this is Western military action to change the political environment of the regions terrorists ordinarily find safe. Since the War On Terror began in October of 2001 Al-Qaeda has been the main target. The Coalition Forces flushed most of Al-QaedaÂs forces out of Afghanistan and into the boarder land between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Slowly Coalition and NATO forces are working to ensure the safety and peace of the Afghan side while putting pressure on Pakistan to also eliminate terrorist camps on their side.
CHINA: THE NEW TERRORIST TRAINING CAMP
Terrorism is something that is difficult to stop, more often than not it just moves. Being forced out of Afghanistan hasnÂt stopped Al-Qaeda as has been proven by recent attacks in Bali, Turkey, and Iraq. Elements of Al-Qaeda may exist around the world to varying degrees, but a new home must be found soon. For that China has many opportunities to offer Al-Qaeda, whether China wants to or not. China is a very large country with land that is not in the control of the People Republic of China, for instance the autonomous regions of Xinjiang, Tibet and the debated state of Taiwan. As was previously mentioned, Xinjiang is an autonomous state of China that lies to the west. Xinjiang borders Pakistan, Afghanistan, India and five other countries. Xinjiang would be an excellent gathering and launching ground for a flood of terrorist from all different nations. As a means to export their ideals, terrorists could be sent not just across the western boarders, but also from eastern China through one of the worldÂs busiest ports, Hong Kong. In a region the size of Xinjiang, Al-Qaeda should certainly be able to find land to establish a base for their camps.
However, there is the question how terrorists will be able to escape the control of the PRC once they have established their base. Again, Xinjiang is an autonomous region, not completely controlled by Chinese authority. In addition, China has its attention in many other places already. For example, frequent Taiwanese claims to attempt independence, American alliances in the region, border disputes with Vietnam, and North KoreaÂs nuclear antics. Although China does not recognize Taiwan as an independent nation, the U.S. continues to commit to TaiwanÂs independence with the use of force, going so far as to engage in arms sales regardless of their effect on the China-Taiwan tension. Similarly, since ChinaÂs invasion in 1979, there has remained a border dispute with Vietnam. To make matters worse, it has turned more towards capitalism, become increasingly friendly with the US Â just this past November, for the first time since the Vietnam War, a US warship docked in Vietnam. Moreover, now that North Korea has admitted to having nuclear weapons and a proven missile system, the US is anxious to develop a missile defense system which in turn threatens both North KoreaÂs and ChinaÂs offensive capabilities:
Specifically, the Chinese worry that Japanese Theater Missile Defense (TMD) programs will obviate their ballistic missile force; undermine their regional security; lead to JapanÂs eventual remilitarization; aid in the defense of Taiwan; and retard current global arms control efforts that reduce or check stronger powers such as the United States.
This is clearly a significant and far reaching threat to China, however distant its reality may be. Yet, it is directly related to JapanÂs latest military moves. Since the War on Terror began, Japan has twice deployed its Self Defense Forces in support of the conflicts, once to the Indian Ocean, once to Iraq. These are the only military personnel Japan has deployed since the end of World War II when it adopted a constitution disallowing any offensive Japanese military. Given this constitutional clause and the conflict over atrocities committed in WWII, China is highly concerned about any increase in Japanese militarism or step towards military independence from the United States.
THE CHINESE BACKLASH
Would China be able to do something, or even care to do something that would stop a terrorist organization within its borders? ÂWhen the calculation of political costs from passivity outweigh the economic and military costs of taking action, Beijing moved against the United States in Korea and Vietnam, against India, and against the Soviet Union. This suggests that China would only take action once terrorism became a significant and established threat that compromised it domestic or international position. However, China may adopt EuropeÂs stance from before September 11th and deal with the terrorists instead:
It was not unusual for European governments to cut secret deals with terrorists. In exchange for the terrorists agreement not to strike within these countries borders or target their citizens, European authorities often turned a blind eye to activities that would otherwise have invited arrest and imprisonment.
It is unlikely that China would take this position but might China choose to sponsor the terrorists since the only successful attacks on the US since World War II were of a terrorist nature? Given American alliances with many of ChinaÂs enemies, for example, India, Japan, and South Korea, China could ally with terrorists if sufficiently threatened by such relationships. Despite ChinaÂs possible acceptance of the terrorist within their borders it seems most likely that China would cherish the relationship that is developing between China and the US. There may be too many economic ties that China cannot afford to cut from the US.
CONCLUSION
In conclusion, because of its domestic and international issues, China is vulnerable to becoming terrorismÂs newest safe-haven. As the nation is currently approaching what appears to be an overwhelming collection of divergent interests, if terrorism moves into the uncontrolled regions of China, it will have little choice but to look the other way. Al-Qaeda has been pushed out of it safe area of operation by coalition forces and is now in need of a new area from which to operate; Xinjiang is a clear opportunity for Al-Qaeda. Yet, China is not a traditional Muslim state, whether this poses a significant difficulty remains to be seen.
